Assessing Risk vs Denial: A Grounded Reality Check

Use this when you’re doubting yourself, being pressured to “calm down,” or told you’re overreacting.


🔍 Step 1: Look at Behaviours, Not Stories

Risk is revealed by patterns, not explanations.

High-risk indicators:

  • Strangulation or threats to breathing
  • Coercive control (money, housing, decisions)
  • Calm, deliberate cruelty rather than explosive anger
  • Escalation during illness, separation, or loss of control
  • Lying that feels effortless
  • Lack of remorse paired with justification
  • Pressure for secrecy, speed, or silence

If these exist, risk is real, regardless of apologies or promises.


🧠 Step 2: Check for Denial Signals

Denial often sounds like:

  • “He wouldn’t really hurt you”
  • “That was just stress / a bad phase”
  • “You’re focusing on the worst”
  • “It’s not happening now, so it’s fine”
  • “Other people have it worse”

Denial focuses on comfort, not safety.


⚠️ Step 3: Ask the Three Non-Negotiable Questions

  1. Has this person ever shown capacity for serious harm?
  2. Do they take full responsibility without minimising or blaming?
  3. Does risk increase when they feel challenged, exposed, or losing control?

If the answer is yes to 1 or 3 — and no to 2 — assume risk, not denial.


🧍 Step 4: Trust the Body Before the Mind

Your nervous system often knows before logic does.

Risk is more likely if:

  • Your body tenses around them
  • You feel smaller, foggy, or hyper-alert
  • You rehearse conversations in your head
  • You monitor their moods to stay safe
  • Relief only comes when they’re not present

This is not anxiety — it’s threat assessment.


🧩 Step 5: Separate Hope From Evidence

Ask yourself:

  • Am I hoping for change that has never been demonstrated?
  • Am I using potential as proof?
  • Am I waiting for insight instead of accountability?

Hope is human.
But safety decisions must be evidence-based.


🔒 Final Ground Rule

If someone benefits from you minimising risk, slowing disclosure, or doubting yourself — pause.

Denial protects comfort.
Risk assessment protects life.

You are allowed to take danger seriously — even if others won’t.

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